Making the Case - 2025 Hypercar Manufacturer Winners
The 2025 WEC season is officially underway with the first two practice sessions having wrapped up out in the desert at the Lusail Circuit, with FP3 and Qualifying to come tomorrow morning (in the US).
Continuing as Part III of our 2025 Season Preview, we make our arguments for why each of the manufacturer's in the Hypercar class can win the world championship, and the argument for why they will not.
Check out Part I and Part II of our season preview via the links.
Toyota are still the top dogs, having beat out Porsche by just two points when all was said and done last November in Bahrain, and if that battle couldn't have finished any closer, imagine what this new season is going to bring. It's going to be hot, heavy, fierce and ferocious and we're totally here for it.
First up, Toyota and TGR -
Why Toyota Will Win
Consistency goes a long way in life, and just about the most consistent thing on Earth the last four years has been the GR010 on a race track. With a driver lineup that's remained essentially the exact same between the two cars going on five years now, Toyota Gazoo Racing and the GR010 are the gold standard of motorsport endurance racing - and they will fight to the death before giving up that crown. When things looked the most impossible with one race to go last season the No. 8 pulled off the one thing they needed to keep Porsche away from the constructor's title - finish the race first overall. To be the champ you have to beat the champ and through the first two years of this new era of top-level prototype endurance racing no one has managed to take down TGR when things have mattered most. By TGR's standards 2024 was their "worst" season in a long time with three wins and two other podiums claimed between the No. 7 and No. 8 (imagine how many teams would kill for that kind of season) but due to the expanded HY field and the up-and-down fortunes of Porsche and Ferrari, all TGR needed was a chance in the season finale and they capitalized. Their expertise as an organization, from the skill behind the wheel to the race directors to the pit crews and all the way down to the guy who gets the coffee, TGR are a top-tier operation that simply does not make mistakes when championships are on the line. Even if other teams have caught up to them, no one can match the big game pedigree that TGR has. Bet against them on your own dime.
Why They Won't
The margins for victory have never been tighter, and Toyota are hanging on by a thread with a car that's the oldest on the grid by far. TGR managed to spin their magic in the Bahrain finale to come out winners last year, yet you have to wonder how much longer they make that last for a program that saw serious contenders finally rise to meet them for the challenge. The GR010 is a legendary machine that deserves all of the praise coming to it once the newer iteration of the car arrives, an arrival that is not on the radar anytime soon unless Toyota are keeping their cards seriously close to the chest. With Porsche finishing within inches of the title and another legitimate threat like Ferrari not far behind, this may finally be the year that TGR are knocked off the top perch to make room for a newcomer. If that comes to pass TGR would have to look no further than themselves for being the primary reason why the other teams around them finally raised their game to match the championship-level they've created for the series.
Porsche and Porsche Penske Motorsport
Why Porsche Will Win
They nearly did it last season before fumbling away their lead in the Bahrain finale and you can't expect Roger Penske and Co. to make the same mistake twice. The lineups are shuffled a bit - the No. 6 will see Matty Campbell run with Laurens Vanthoor and Kevin Estre, while the No. 7 sports Julien Andlauer, Michael Chritsensen and Mathieu Jaminet - which is a sextet so formidable it'd make the local town harlot sweat profusely if she was sitting next to them in church. Hot take alert: the 963 is the best pound-for-pound prototype machine in the world at this point in time as the car has racked up some banging race wins, plenty of podiums and championships in both the WEC and IMSA, leaving just two Soulstones left for Penske to acquire before completing his Endurance Infinity Gauntlet - Le Mans and the WEC Manufacturers' title. Anticipate one or both happening in 2025.
Why They Won't
We'll be honest - this is a hard case to make. Maybe the 963 experiences crippling engine failures, or their brakes suddenly stop working, or someone throws sand into the gas tank, or they see just an inexplicable drop in race pace. Otherwise, it's hard to see PPM not challenging for podiums every time out on the track the way TGR have done so seemingly forever. The car has the capability to win each time it hits the pavement and the collection of driver talent rivals any other group that they will go up against. Is the 963 bad for racing? No of course not; we need at least one more season with six wins out of eight races before we can entertain that notion. Until then, bet the house on Porsche - 2025 Manufacturers' champions. Does FanDuel have those odds?!
Ferrari and Ferrari AF Corse
Why Ferrari Will Win
At some point Ferrari will have to do more than just win Le Mans, right? Winning the world's most prestigious endurance race in back-to-back years is something to be celebrated even if its still far from their legendary run of domination through the late 50s and early 60s, but Ferrari are shooting for more in the new season. They've tested the 499P like mad coming into the new campaign by logging over 9,000 miles on tracks around the globe in the span of half a month leading into Lusail. The program hasn't officially levied a Joker update to the machine but they have introduced plenty of under-the-hood improvements for 2025 with the aim of improving reliability and performance. Both the No. 50 and No. 51 faltered down the stretch last season by ways of DNFs and out-of-points finishes that sunk their chances of securing a Drivers' or Manufacturers' title, and when you point out that the triumphs at Le Mans are the only wins that the 499P have managed to secure in two years you can barely believe the fact. They've been right-there running at the top of the table for hundreds of laps combined but from 10,000 feet they don't have the accumulated success one would expect. At some point your luck has to break, and with an unchanged driver lineup in both cars, coupled with more development and improvements for the car, Ferrari surely has it in them to put it all together and come out on top in 2025.
Why They Won't
There's something just, I don't know, off about the 499P? Success at Le Mans carries a lot of weight, and they've run near the front of the pack in just about every race since arriving on the scene, yet they've fallen short of nailing down race wins and in turn world championship success. In 2023 they finished second to TGR in the standings and fell one more spot to P3 behind TGR and Porsche last season. Issues plagued all three Ferrari's at different points in 2024 - the No. 83 suffered a brake failure that ended their Le Mans bid, the No. 51 ended the season with three-straight non-points finishes and saw their P2 finish at Bahrain wiped out due to a post-race inspection failure, while the No. 50 saw their title chances effectively ended with a P9 finish at Fuji the race previous. The crap sandwich that was Fuji put a sour end to what should have been a much closer fight to the finish against Toyota and Porsche, and Ferrari as a whole has a bit of that "I'll believe it when I see it" that has plagued their Formula 1 team for about a decade now. Can they keep it all together between race strategy, hitting on their tire strategy AND not fumbling things away when they matter the most? Again, we'll believe it when we see it.
(photos via: toyotagazooracing.com, porschemotorsport.com, motorsport.com)
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